Global smartphone shipments in 2023 are expected to decline by 5% year-on-year to reach 1.2 billion, Counterpoint Research has disclosed.
This will be the lowest level in almost a decade, according to the firm’s Smartphone 360 Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast.
It, however, predicted that the shipments would increase by three percent y-o-y in Q4 2023 to reach 312 million units.
It noted that North America and Europe’s shipments were expected to remain stagnant with China and emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa, and India managing to break out from their declines to recover to become the new drivers of growth in the smartphone market from Q4 2023 onwards.
Commenting on the growth patterns, the firm said, “Apple, the usual market leader in Q4 with its newly launched series, is expected to record a volume decline of three percent y-o-y in Q4 2023, mainly due to Huawei’s aggressive expansion in China and prolonged delay in smartphone upgrades in Japan.
“However, Apple will try to offset the underperformance in volume terms by growing in value terms with a better product mix. In Q4 2022, the shipment share of the iPhone 14 Pro series in the entire iPhone 14 series was 61 percent. In Q4 2023, however, the iPhone 15 Pro series’ portion in the iPhone 15 series is projected to increase to 65 percent.”
The firm highlighted that the retention of high-interest rates in the US would continue to impact consumer spending and intensify competition in China’s premium smartphone market, which may hinder Apple’s growth throughout 2024.
An Associate Director at the firm, Liz Lee, said, “India, maintaining its momentum for premiumization, is expected to become Apple’s new growth focus. Apple’s India shipments are predicted to grow 23 percent YoY in 2024. However, due to its underperformance against Huawei in China, Apple’s global market share will unavoidably decline slightly YoY in Q4 2023 and across 2024.”
Recently, the International Data Corporation disclosed that Nigeria’s smartphone market grew in the third quarter of 2023 despite rapid currency devaluation.
It noted that Africa’s smartphone market may expand by 2.6 percent y-o-y in 2024, with a sustained upward trajectory through 2027.