IKENNA EMEWU
At last Donald John Trump, the 45th president of the US has been inaugurated as the 47th president.
In his second coming, Trump seems poised to take a different approach away from his bellicosity towards China, unlike in his first tenure.
At least two first steps he took on January 20 showed a different body language, provided that is not a decoy and a false lead.
Three days before he came to power, the country’s Supreme Court had handed a judgment that TikTok, a prominent social media platform owned by Chinese company, Bytedance and used by 170 million citizens of the country be shut down unless it sells to US owners.
But Trump who reserves the presidential powers to implement or drop the order announced an immediate reversal.
Prior to this, he towed a historic line by inviting foreign leaders to his inauguration, a pattern unknown in the country.
One of those he invited is President Xi Jinping of China, who actually sent his deputy to represent him. Trump also admitted that he spoke with Xi extensively, and a number of times since his electoral victory and towards his inauguration. So, it’s possible Trump would be friends with Beijing this time.
In about the second week of November 2016, a little after Trump was elected the president of the USA the first time, I interviewed the president of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Mr. Jin Liqun in his office in Beijing. Then I was a reporter for the People’s Daily of China.
I asked him a question on what he felt the disposition of the incoming US president would be towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
He responded bluntly that he expected the new president to align the USA with the BRI when in office. Even though the US didn’t fully subscribe, at the inauguration in May 2017, the White House sent a delegation led by Matt Pottinger.
I would draw an inference from Mr. Jin’s statement in response to my question on whether the World Bank or the IMF won’t see AIIB, a creation of China’s diplomatic dexterity, as a rival. He responded that the World Bank and IMF are not enough to handle global economic challenges and therefore need some other agencies to support as co-players, not rivals.
That was instructive. He added that Asia alone had a US$3 trillion annual infrastructure deficit the two Bretton Wood agencies have not plugged. That was his point on why AIIB should be welcomed as a partner, not a rival.
Let me liken the position of having more platforms above to the White House or Trump and the BRI as it concerns Nigeria and Africa.
Nigeria and Africa need more frameworks, therefore, the likelihood of dropping the BRI or waxing colder towards it is not in the equation. This will not be premised on whether Trump befriends China or not, this time.
Looking back into history, in May 2000, President Bill Clinton signed into law the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Up till last year when it held the 21st Session, African countries are yet to count the gains of AGOA to the lifting of the continent. The countries that have benefited most are Kenya and Lesotho and the rate of benefit is 2.1%.
These figures and rates are not comparable to the benefits of BRI to the same Africa even though it started 13 years after AGOA. In 2023 alone African countries received a total of USD21.7 billion in BRI deals that powered mainly infrastructure development in so many forms. So, Africa itself knows the difference and what should be preferred.
On January 6, 2025, Trump announced that he had been in contact with President Xi Jinping since his re-election and believed he would get along very well with China. So, if Trump and Xi or the USA and China would get on well as Trump assured, the man in Washington DC won’t be the one to decide for Nigeria and Africa on how to relate with China? That does not look plausible.
Trump is not coming to change the US diplomatic policies. No president of that country does. They just adjust the dimensions. It is instructive to explain that US global diplomatic policy has never had Africa as a major plank. That is not going to change. Therefore, Trump is not coming for Africa’s good. This is affirmed by the list of leaders he invited to his inauguration. Africa wasn’t in that list.
Africa also knows that Trump is not coming with any mandate for the continent that is of fringe and insignificant interest to him and the US. At best, the policy will as usual be riveted at exploitation and using Africa as a test case of least profitable diplomacy like always.
Most of all, Trump is not new to the global scene. He had been there for a tenure. We witnessed who he is. He is not likely coming with a different mindset towards Africa, maybe just some tweaks here and there. His disposition is not going to change anything about the way Africa relates with any country.
If there could be a change, which is most unlikely, it will still be in the direction of extending more momentary carrots at Africa, just to undo China in the continent, not actually to benefit Africa in the long run.
In Trump’s first coming, his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo had a frenzy of diplomatic shuttles through Africa to openly lobby the continent to drop China and embrace Washington. He worked so hard at selling the old dummy of China debt-trapping Africa. Unfortunately, that has been a track well walked that everyone in Africa knows how hollow. A similar shuttle may repeat, but as the former didn’t cut ice, I doubt if this second coming would.
Moreover, no matter who occupies the White House, that will not in any way divest Nigeria or any other African country of its sovereignty. Being a sovereign means possessing the unchallenged powers to make decisions for the good of the country. Trump’s return to the White House would not make him the president of Nigeria or the one to decide what Nigeria does. In the history of Nigeria-US relations, the White House never did that.
When the BRI was formally inaugurated, Trump was in power and didn’t stop anybody in Africa from acceding to the BRI Treaty. That is not going to change.
The mandate by state parties of the BRI to promote and sustain the diplomatic framework for global engagement towards development, modernization, and the anchor of shared benefits for all humanity will still be the fulcrum of BRI.
The only challenge the BRI would have is just the framework itself, not Trump, or the White House.
If only BRI remains resolute and steadfast in its mandate and objectives, executing them to the letter like in the past, Nigeria or any African country is not going to opt out because Trump is in Washington.
I only would challenge the BRI not to deviate from its sure tracks.
